Rite-Aid (NYSE: RAD), a competitor of CVS (NYSE: CVS) and Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), tanked Thursday. By the end of the trading session, the pharmacy's stock declined almost 23% on heavy volume. Yes, it was a horrible day in the market overall, but don't blame the market at large. Rite-Aid is simply a company to avoid, and its latest earnings data show why.
According to the AP, Rite-Aid booked a loss of $0.20 per share for its fiscal first quarter versus a profit of $0.04 per share in the year-ago period. There are some growing pains going on here, since Rite-Aid is attempting to integrate its purchase of Brooks Eckerd. That acquisition propelled the company to top-line revenue growth of 48%. Unfortunately, analysts were looking for the company to lose only $0.09 per share. The significant differential made investors feel justified in punishing the stock. Heck, I'll bless the sell-off myself.
It'll be a long time before Rite-Aid finally turns its ship around. The next fiscal year will bring more losses, and with strong competition out there from CVS and Walgreen, the road ahead for management won't be for the faint of heart. This is truly a speculator's stock. I took a look at a post I wrote on Rite-Aid back near the beginning of April. At that time, the stock was priced at about $2.89 per share. As of Thursday's close, the shares were trading for $1.35. The Rite-Aid story belongs in the horror genre, and its stock is best left to those professionals who don't mind losing money. Individual investors? This company isn't for you, in my opinion.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) reported sluggish Q3 numbers last week. Net sales increased a little under 10% to $15 billion. Net income increased a whopping two pennies to 58 cents per diluted share (the term "whopping" is used here sarcastically). According to this article, Walgreen met top-line expectations but missed the bottom-line call by a penny.
Gross margin remained relatively stable, but the net margin dropped to 3.8% in the quarter compared to 4.1% in the previous year's similar period. But same-store sales increased 3.4%, which is a decent number. Also, operational cash flow jumped over 19% to $2.5 billion. That's excellent; it's always good to see cash coming in. It helps mitigate the tepid earnings expansion. Walgreen did well with its cash-flow statement last time around as well. Walgreen management cited the economy as a factor in its earnings stats and highlighted the fact that it cut back on expenses, including advertising. Making sure costs don't get out of hand is important, but I'd be careful about eliminating too much of the advertising budget. Competing with CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), Rite-Aid (NYSE: RAD), and the pharmacy at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) obligates brand-building and differentiation.
Walgreen's Q3 wasn't beyond awesome, but it was solid enough. The stock is only down slightly as I write this. As a long-term play on the need for drugstores, it's not a bad way to go.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Though the quarter is winding down, there are still earnings reports to come, including Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) and Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR). Both companies are expected to report profit growth this coming week.
Walgreen is expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to report third-quarter earnings of 59 cents per share, up 6.8% from the same period of last year, on revenue of $15.1 billion. The company has provided positive surprises in four of the past five quarters -- by two cents in the previous quarter.
Based in Deerfield, Ill., Walgreen is the largest drug store chain in the U.S. in terms of sales, and has more than 6,200 stores in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. In the past year, the company's revenues were $53.7 billion and its net income totaled $2.0 billion. Its long-term EPS growth forecast is 14.0%, which is less than the retail industry average, as well as less than that of rival CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS). The consensus recommendation of analysts has recently shifted from hold to buy Walgreen.
The share price is up 4.0% since the beginning of the year, and up from 11.6% from a year ago. It trades at a P/E ratio of 20.68. Shares closed Friday at $41.35.
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MOST NOTEWORTHY: Walgreen, Crown Castle and Brunswick were today's noteworthy initiations:
Thomas Weisel started shares of Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) with an Overweight rating and $43 target. The firm is positive on WAG's steady cash flow and solid growth profile.
Merriman believes Crown Castle (NYSE: CCI) is a core wireless holding given its high-margin, predictable recurring revenue model. They believe shares can trade to the $49-$51 range assuming management continues to execute on its free cash flow growth target. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating.
KeyBanc initiated Brunswick (NYSE: BC) with a Hold rating and expects the recreational marine market to be challenging given weakening consumer spending trends.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Citigroup initiated Gerdau AmeriSteel (NYSE: GNA) with a Buy rating and $21 target.
Piper assumed Teradyne (NYSE: TER) with a Neutral rating and $14 target.
International Speedway (NASDAQ: ISCA) was initiated at Stephens with an Overweight rating and $50 target.
EMC (NYSE:EMC) Cut To Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein, according to24/7 Wall St. The financial website also reports that Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) Raised to Overweight at Lehman.
Thomas Weisel initiates Walgreen (NYSE:WAG) as "overweight" according to Briefing.com. Friedman Billings has taken Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC) off its "best picks" list.
Coinstar (NASDAQ: CSTR) offers North American and U.K. retailers a range of storefront service and entertainment devices. These include coin counters, kiddie rides, bulk vending machines, skill-crane games and point-of-sale terminals. The firm also provides self-service DVD movie rental/purchase kiosks and provides money transfer services, prepaid wireless products, stored value cards, payroll cards and prepaid debit cards. Coinstar products and services are distributed through more than 53,000 retail stores. Corporate clients include Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Kroger (NYSE: KR) and Walgreen (NYSE: WAG).
The company surprised the Street last week, when it reported Q1 EPS of 18 cents and revenues of $190.5 million. Analysts had been expecting four cents and $182.7 million. Management also guided Q2 EPS to 8-15 cents (12 cent consensus), Q2 revenues to $200-$210 million ($202.19M consensus), FY08 EPS to 60-75 cents (57 cent consensus) and FY08 revenues to $850-$900 million ($829.83M consensus). DA Davidson subsequently upgraded the stock to "buy".
"Shares of Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) have come under pressure in recent months, reflecting a slowdown in sales because of a weakening economy and intensifying competition," notes Richard Moroney.
The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts adds, "However, Walgreen's long-term prospects remain appealing, and the stock is attractively valued. Walgreen is a Long-Term Buy." Here is his review.
"Big, strong, and healthy, Walgreen is the largest U.S. drugstore chain as measured by revenue and the second-largest based on store count.
"The company operates more than 6,200 stores in 48 states and Puerto Rico and plans to boost the count to 7,000 by fiscal 2010 ending August. Walgreen sees long-term potential for about 13,000 U.S. stores. Prescriptions generate about 65% of total sales, with the rest coming from general merchandise.
"In fiscal 2007, both pharmacy and general merchandise sales growth outpaced the industry average, and Walgreen increased market share in nearly all of its core categories.
"Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) is no longer relegated to a tiny corner of the investment landscape; indeed, according to the Social Investment Forum, SRI now accounts for $2.7 trillion, up more than 18% since 2005," says Chuck Carlson.
Here, the editor of The DRIP Investor offers five stock that both rank high for their social responsibility and also stand out based on more traditional earnings and valuation analysis.
"The Social Investment Forum estimates that more than one in every 10 dollars under professional management in the U.S. is involved in SRI investing. What is driving the growth in SRI?
"One factor is the increasing numbers of women and younger investors among the investor populace have fueled demand for SRI investments.
"In addition, we see an increased focus on environment, social, and corporate governance issues. Further, widely publicized stories concerning global warming as well as various corporate governance issues, have caused many investors to reconsider how they deploy their investment capital.
Financial Stocks to Love The subprime mortgage meltdown and resulting credit crisis have slammed financial stocks recently. But there are still some diamonds in the rough. They include Berkshire Hathaway, RBS, AFLAC, Raymond James and BOK. Financial stocks we love - CNNMoney.com
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CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), a big competitor of both Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) and Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), released its Q1 earnings last week. They were very good, and they reminded me that I probably need to throw a drugstore chain's stock in my core portfolio as a long-term play on the increasing health-care needs of the baby boomers (and every other demo, for that matter).
Looking through the reported growth rates, you can see that we're talking best-of-breed here. Revenues were up over 60%, and adjusted earnings per share increased over 18%, coming in at $0.55. The Caremark merger has obviously proven to be a good move. Same-store sales rose 3.9%, benefited in part by the early appearance of Easter in March.
According to earnings.com, CVS Caremark basically matched earnings expectations. That's okay, though, I don't think you can hold it against this big brand name. As of this writing, CVS is near a 52-week high. Buying at the 52-week high is always a dicey thing, but if you plan on holding for years, it wouldn't be that much of a concern. Shorter-term traders would need to wait for a pullback. But I like the first quarter results for CVS, and I think the stock is poised to do well over time. And like I said at the beginning, this really may be a stock for the core portion of an individual's investment program -- a true buy-and-hold idea.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.
CVS Caremark Corp (NYSE: CVS) -- with 6,200 stores and a pharmacy benefits management division -- beats Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) -- with 5,997 stores -- hands down in the battle of the brands. It's bigger, its earnings are growing faster, it has a higher P/E and its stock has grown faster over the last year and five years. Walgreen wins on one measure: it has a fatter profit margin.
Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), I should disclose, is one of my least favorite companies and stocks. Nevertheless, I don't mind checking in on it from time to time when there is news about it. Yesterday, the pharmacy released sales data for the month of March (the data excludes the Brooks Eckerd acquisition). Did they change my outlook on Rite Aid at all?
No, although I should say that this wouldn't be necessarily expected; a month of same-store sales data isn't the killer app of an overall investment thesis for a retail idea. Still, shareholders follow comps religiously, and I have to say that Rite Aid's number was nothing to write home about. A 2.6% gain in sales at stores open more than a year is weak. Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) said earlier in the week that its comparable-store revenues grew by a much better 4.4%. Walgreen was able to take advantage of the Easter shopping excitement in a much better fashion than Rite Aid. It all comes down to brand and execution; Walgreen, as well as CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), are more valuable in terms of both those attributes.
I may not have been bowled over by Walgreen's recent earnings release, but I can tell you that Rite Aid's share price is downright frightening and telling -- it's telling people to stay away, or at least understand that it may be essentially like buying a lottery ticket (it closed at $2.89 yesterday). Rite Aid's same-store sales were weak, and so is its investment potential.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any of the companies mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
Walgreen
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CVS Caremark
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