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Coldplay may have answered EMI's rumored hopes

Despite a 66% drop from first week sales of 721,000 copies, Coldplay's fourth album Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends retains the top spot on the Billboard 200, selling 249,000 copies in the album's second week of release. Billboard reported the chart placement Wednesday and noted album sales are down 7.66% in the last week while dropping 13.2% behind the same week totals from one year ago.

The album was released in the United Kingdom three weeks ago tomorrow, while it has only been out in the United States for two weeks. It debuted big in the UK, selling 302,000 copies in the first three days it was out and selling 500,000 copies after ten days. Sales in the U.S. over seven days are obviously larger than the UK figures, pointing to rumored hopes from the band's music label EMI that the album would provide a significant boost for the company during the summer and possibly the year.

I've had the album since it was released, reporting that very day about the packaging of a vinyl and CD copy together that seemed to hint EMI was aware that consumers listen to music more frequently on MP3 players even if they prefer vinyl copies for nostalgia or the entire experience. Two weeks at number is impressive in today's market and even though sales dropped 66%, 249,000 copies is a nice figure for one week. If continued rumors are true that the band will release another album within a year and a half, the future of EMI may be more and more based on the success of one band.

WD-40 (WDFC) greases its own wheels

The lubricant with thousands of uses, WD-40 is found in just about every toolbox in the nation. WD-40 Company (NASDAQ: WDFC) released 3Q 2008 results that show solid sales figure increases in all divisions around the globe. Net sales for the quarter increased 5.8% to $82 million. Net income was up by the same amount to $8 million. EPS increased 10% to $0.49. The story is much the same for YTD figures. WD-40 posted these numbers despite a tremendous run-up in the prices of raw materials. Senior management is being conservative and has, therefore, reduced FY2008 guidance. The company now expects net sales to increase 4-8% to $320-$332 million. Net income will be in the $30 to $31 million range and EPS in the $1.78-$1.85 range.

The company is rolling out its Smart Straw initiative globally. No more looking for the stupid little red straw that always got separated from the spray can. Now all aerosol cans of WD-40 have a built-in applicator. What a relief.

WD-40 also owns 3-in1 oil, Lava soap, X-14 and Carpet Fresh. None of these products are environmentally friendly by any stretch of the imagination. To counteract the perception that its products are not environmentally sensitive, WD-40 has launched a new product line, Spot Shot, comprised of an environmentally safe carpet stain remover and pet odor remover.

The stock is trading at just over $27, near its 52-week low of $26.50, and pays $0.25 in quarterly dividend.

Booze a defensive play in a bear market

Bad news in the market means good news for Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) which manufactures and markets spirits, wines and beers under a variety of labels. Brands include Robert Mondavi wines, Corona beer and Black Velvet whiskey. When the economy is good, folks drink to celebrate. When the economy starts to tank, people drink to commiserate. Constellation benefits either way. The company just released 1Q 2009 results. Profits jumped 50%! Diluted (no pun intended) EPS was $0.20, up from $0.13 in 1Q 2008. Consoldiated net sales increased 3%, with wine sales up 15% and spirit sales, led by vodka, up 9%. Constellation offloaded several lower profit margin lines including Almaden and Inglenook wines, and added higher product margin line wines Clos du Bois and Wild Horse.

Investors, whether drinkers or tea-totalers, like the numbers. The stock is up over 5% in the last two days, closing on July 2nd at $21.22

Sprint Nextel finally in the midst of a turnaround?

Much has been written about Sprint Nextel Corp.'s (NYSE: S) follies in recent quarters. The third-largest wireless carrier in the U.S. has lost millions of customers to larger and more successful competitors like Verizon Wireless and AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T). But, with the launch of an extremely successful iPhone competitor (among other things), the company is showing signs of stemming its huge customer defections from past quarters.

The word of support initially came from Verizon Wireless President Denny Strigl , who told investors that Sprint's performance had picked up in the last months -- although Verizon still didn't consider Sprint to be a threat to Verizon Wireless' current results. Still, any improvement for Sprint is a good thing. Sprint CEO Dan Hesse, a wireless industry veteran with a largely successful track record, is the right person to be leading Sprint as well. So, are all the cards lined up for Sprint to become a resurgent force in the U.S. wireless industry?

It's stock has rebounded in a decent way, closing up from mid-March's $6/share to $8.91 recently (it closed yesterday at $8.94/share). Although Sprint lost over a million customers in the first quarter of 2008, the numbers should not be that bad in the second quarter. Sprint also won't be sold any time soon. Verizon Wireless, which just bought Alltel from its private owners, is the only company that could have made a merger work in buying Sprint Nextel. It would be disastrous to have another company come in and try to emulate what Sprint attempted with Nextel back in 2005, which has turned out to be a complete disaster and has led to tens of billions in write-offs (do you hear me now, Deutsche Telekom?).

Sprint has the chops to turn itself around in 2009 with some solid management and good decisions, but it still won't be easy. Spinning off the Nextel network (oops, I mean selling the spectrum off) and migrating all those customers to Sprint's network -- along with heavy retention incentives -- may be Hesse's biggest bet yet. That is, if he has the cahones to do it.

General Motors (GM): Electro-Shock Therapy

General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) investors, as well as auto industry trackers, will want to read Jonathan Rauch's "Electro-Shock Therapy" in the July 2008 issue of Atlantic Magazine. Mr. Rauch was given unprecedented access to all personnel involved in GM's company-wide commitment to have a market-ready electric car by late 2010. GM personnel note the Chevy VOLT, as the car is named, will not be a hybrid per se, but will be the first mass market electric car with a range of 40 miles per charge, enough to cover the daily commute of 75% of American workers. The car's small gasoline engine will be used to recharge the battery, while only electricity will be used to power the wheels. GM is trying to wow consumers by manufacturing an affordable electric car that will sever the connection between driving and the gas pump.

GM lost the engineering and publicity wars on electric cars to Toyota's Prius years ago. Toyota has been eating GM's lunch ever sense. According to GM's VP Bob Lutz, it's payback time. Using the same rhetoric President Kennedy used to launch the Apollo space program and race to land on the moon, GM has sectioned off the Volt division and given it complete decision-making and spending authority to reinvent not only the electric automobile, but also the company itself. In one Volt engineer's words: "Go big or go home."

Yes, there are problems with the weight to power ratio in the battery. And yes, production of both the battery and the car body are being rushed towards production without the normal period of evaluation. But GM has staked its future on the Volt, and unlike my colleague Michael Rainey who isn't that positive on the Volt, there's reason for at least cautious optimism, a quality currently in short supply coming out of Detroit.

Taleo Corporation (TLEO): Shares cycle through positive trading channel

Taleo Corporation (NASDAQ: TLEO) offers software that allows businesses to efficiently manage their staffing processes. Products help to automate recruitment, background screening, regulatory compliance, skills assessment and tracking of professional, hourly, and temporary employees. The firm's professional services division provides implementation and technical support. Customers range from small businesses to global enterprises. Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) and Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) are among Taleo's large-cap clients.

Investors were pleased last month, when the company affirmed its Q2 EPS and revenue guidance figures. Management also said it expected this week's acquisition of talent management software maker Vurv Technology to add to its 2008 results, projecting EPS of 62 cents (60 cent consensus) and revenues of $175-$177 million ($162.8M consensus).

Continue reading Taleo Corporation (TLEO): Shares cycle through positive trading channel

Celgene (CELG) lifted by TV analyst coverage

CELG logoCelgene Biopharma (NASDAQ: CELG) shares are trading higher today after an analyst on CNBC's Fast Money recommended the stock last night, adding that the company could be getting some good news related to the development of its Lymphoma treatment soon. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on CELG.

After hitting a one-year high of $75.44 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $41.26 in December. CELG opened this morning at $65.90. So far today the stock has hit a low of $65.16 and a high of $66.93. As of 12:50, CELG is trading at $66.73, up $2.86 (4.4%). The chart for CELG looks bearish and improving slightly, while S&P gives the stock a bullish 4 Stars (out of 5) Buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $55 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just seven weeks as long as CELG is above $55 at August expiration. Celgene would have to fall by more than 17% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Celgene (CELG) lifted by TV analyst coverage

Sherwin-Williams (SHW) gets favorable court ruling

SHW logoSherwin-Williams (NYSE: SHW) shares are trading higher today after the Rhode Island Supreme Court overturned a $2.4 billion ruling against SHW and two other former lead-paint producers that would have ordered the companies to inspect and clean thousands of homes built before 1980 that were likely to contain lead paint. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on SHW.

After hitting a one-year high of $73.96 last July, the stock hit a one-year low of $45.89 yesterday. SHW opened this morning at $48.29. So far today the stock has hit a low of $45.82 and a high of $48.86. As of 11:55, SHW is trading at $47.36, up $1.43 (3.1%). The chart for SHW looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $40 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.5% return in just seven weeks as long as SHW is above $55 at August expiration. Sherwin-Williams would have to fall by more than 15% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Sherwin-Williams (SHW) gets favorable court ruling

Barrick Gold (ABX) driven higher by rising gold futures

ABX logoBarrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) shares are trading higher today as gold futures have advanced by almost 2%. Gold is being propped up by yet another record high for crude, which investors expect to drive inflation. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ABX.

After hitting a one-year low of $28.89 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $54.74 in March. ABX opened this morning at $46.42. So far today the stock has hit a low of $46.00 and a high of $47.00. As of 12:05, ABX is trading at $46.55, up $1.05 (2.3%). The chart for ABX looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $37.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just seven weeks as long as ABX is above $37.50 at August expiration. Barrick would have to fall by more than 19% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Barrick Gold (ABX) driven higher by rising gold futures

The Andersons (ANDE): Price defines bullish 'flag' consolidation pattern

The Andersons (NASDAQ: ANDE) is a diversified firm, with interests in the U.S. agriculture, transportation and retail markets. Its Grain & Ethanol Group purchases and merchandises grain; operates grain elevator facilities; manages ethanol production facilities; and engages in grain and ethanol trading. The Rail Group buys, sells, leases, rebuilds, and repairs various types of used railcars and rail equipment. The Retail Group offers hardware, plumbing, electrical, and building supplies, as well as specialty foods and wines. The Plant Nutrient and Turf & Specialty Groups formulate fertilizers. The company has operations in ten states and Puerto Rico, plus rail leasing interests in Canada and Mexico.

The firm pleased investors last week, when it boosted its FY08 EPS guidance from $3.65-$4.00 to $4.40-$4.80. Analysts had been looking for $3.79. Management attributed the favorable outlook to the improved performance of the Plant Nutrient Group.

Continue reading The Andersons (ANDE): Price defines bullish 'flag' consolidation pattern

Sprint's new iPhone-killer selling like hotcakes

Doug pointed out recently that the new Samsung Instinct most likely could not save Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) from its current financial and customer woes. He's right -- one phone does not resurrect a company. However, the Instinct -- which looks and functions very similar to an Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone -- is still selling like hotcakes. My guess? It's all due to Apple, not Sprint.

The Instinct, which apparently has become Sprint's best-selling 3G phone product ever in a very short time, is an impressive device. Feature-for-feature, it's right there with the upcoming 3G iPhone about to be released in a few weeks. Independent research that counted the movement of Instinct phones at 100 Sprint stores around the country report that it's selling out fast. Sprint contends that the smartphone is the fastest-selling phone in Sprint's history up to this point.

But, to those customers of Sprint (new and old) who just can't see themselves joining AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) just to get an iPhone, the Instinct is apparently turning out to be a perfect equivalent. If Apple had never released the original iPhone, the Instinct may have never been born. Apple, as usual, has made other hardware companies realize that hardware needs to be elegant, and software needs to be way elegant. The clumsy designs and complex cellphone interfaces may soon be extinct, thanks to Apple. And, Sprint's sales of the Samsung Instinct will at least owe partial credit to the iPhone maker.

EMCOR Group (EME): Shares advance through trading channel

EMCOR Group (NYSE: EME) plans, installs, operates and maintains the systems that create facility environments. These include installations for power generation, power distribution, lighting, security, communications, plumbing, waste treatment, heating, ventilation, refrigeration and air-conditioning. The firm also provides facilities management and maintenance support. It serves commercial, industrial and institutional clients such as Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) and Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB). Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI) is a major competitor.

The Street was surprised last week, when EMCOR guided FY08 EPS from $2.08-$2.28 to $2.22-$2.42 and FY08 revenues from $6.3-$6.5 billion to $6.8-$7.0 billion. Analysts had been looking for $2.31 and $6.76 billion. The CEO cited "solid order activity" and a "strong contract backlog" for the favorable view.

Continue reading EMCOR Group (EME): Shares advance through trading channel

Bono applauds Radiohead for the method used to release 'In Rainbows'

Despite criticism by Irish band U2's manager Paul McGuinness over Radiohead's method for releasing In Rainbows last October, U2's lead singer Bono has published an open letter in NME disagreeing and applauding Radiohead for the album and how it was released. McGuinness told the BBC in early June that the method was "a failure and backfired" because "it still resulted in over 60%-70% of listeners acquiring the album through illegal channels."

Bono's letter to NME, printed in last week's issue, takes a sharp left turn from his manager's opinion, calling Radiohead "courageous and imaginative in trying to figure out some new relationship with their audience." Bono also remarked how "blessed" he feels "to be around at the same time" as "a sacred talent" like Radiohead. U2 have recently taken steps to reach their audience, joining forces with Live Nation Inc. (NYSE: LYV) in a deal that will market their music and concerts with related products from one location.

U2 is still signed to Universal Music Group for the band's record releases, which may have been one reason McGuinness came out against the method Radiohead used last year. Neverthless, the disagreement between manager and lead singer is insignificant compared to the applaud Radiohead continue to receive from fellow artists. Trent Reznor of Nine Inch Nails, a band that was also signed to Universal Music Group, has also come out in support of Radiohead's method, even though he, too, took issue with some aspects of it. Reznor has since released two NIN albums the same way.

Time Warner (TWX) lifted by global ad revenue growth forecast

TWX logoTime Warner (NYSE: TWX) shares are trading higher today after ZenithOptimedia forecast a 6.6% growth rate for global ad spending in 2008, pushed by international growth. An analyst at Citi also added TWX to the broker's "Top Picks Live" list, saying that there is potential value to be found int he sale of different parts of the overall Time Warner business such as the cable unit, AOL's advertising business, and the AOL dial-up ISP service. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on TWX.

After hitting a one-year high of $21.51 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $13.65 in March. TWX opened this morning at $14.59. So far today the stock has hit a low of $14.46 and a high of $14.79. As of 12:30, TWX is trading at $14.69, up 27 cents(1.9%). The chart for TWX looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $13 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 12.5 % return in just four months as long as TWX is above $13 at October expiration. Time Warner would have to fall by more than 11% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

TWX hasn't been below $13.65 at all in the past year and has shown support around $14 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 8/6) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $14, where it bottomed out in March.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in TWX.

PAREXEL International (PRXL): Price consolidating in bullish 'pennant' pattern

PAREXEL International Corporation (NASDAQ: PRXL) provides contract research, medical marketing and consulting services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device industries. Its Clinical Research Services segment offers clinical trial and data management, clinical pharmacology and related medical advisory services. The Consulting and Medical Communications Services unit offers technical advice on new product development, marketing and regulatory affairs. Subsidiary Perceptive Informatics sells IT system, medical imaging, and related services that help manage clinical trials.

The company pleased investors last week, when it guided fiscal Q4 EPS to 25-26 cents and revenues to $258-$265 million. Analysts had been looking for 26 cents and $259.31 million. Management also guided FY09 EPS to $1.10-$1.20 ($1.08 consensus) and FY09 revenues to $1.11-$1.14 billion ($1.14B consensus). Raymond James subsequently upgraded the stock to "outperform", noting that the firm "will exhibit a strong growth profile due to a strong biopharmaceutical outsourcing market, a large geographic footprint and a diversified service offering."

Continue reading PAREXEL International (PRXL): Price consolidating in bullish 'pennant' pattern

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Last updated: July 05, 2008: 11:53 PM

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